新標(biāo)到貨不多,鋼廠挺價(jià)意愿尚存,鋼價(jià)已觸底？
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2024-08-09 22:49
編輯：達(dá)物
來源：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)
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table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}創(chuàng)大鋼鐵資訊8月9日消息:【原料信息】1.焦炭：目前各焦企利潤(rùn)尚可，多數(shù)繼續(xù)維持前期生產(chǎn)狀態(tài)。個(gè)別有限產(chǎn)。下游鋼價(jià)以下跌為主，成材成交情況疲軟，鋼廠虧損加劇，鐵水產(chǎn)量回調(diào)，剛需減弱，且近期鋼廠高爐檢修有所增加，悲觀情緒不減，預(yù)計(jì)短期焦炭市場(chǎng)偏弱運(yùn)行。2.鐵礦石：本周鐵水產(chǎn)量大幅下降也是屬于正常的預(yù)期，而對(duì)于后續(xù)鐵水下降空間市場(chǎng)開市預(yù)測(cè)將會(huì)減小，前期檢修的高爐若是沒有意外將會(huì)陸續(xù)復(fù)產(chǎn)，因此需求端回暖的預(yù)期也可能一定程度上讓冰冷的市場(chǎng)情緒回暖了些。短期內(nèi)由于鋼廠繼續(xù)減產(chǎn)對(duì)鐵礦的需求會(huì)有進(jìn)一步的壓制，造成礦價(jià)易跌難漲，但同時(shí)鋼材近幾周產(chǎn)量的大幅下降已在逐步給鋼價(jià)筑底，后續(xù)繼續(xù)大幅減產(chǎn)的可能性下降，市場(chǎng)或進(jìn)行修復(fù)性交易，黑色系價(jià)格反彈可能性也在上升，因此綜合來看鐵礦石價(jià)格期間或繼續(xù)維持低位震蕩?！句搹S調(diào)價(jià)】：1.8月9日湘鋼建材出廠價(jià)格平穩(wěn)：1、HRB400E材質(zhì)18mm螺紋鋼出廠指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3240元/噸,2、HRB400E材質(zhì)8-10mm盤螺出廠指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3390元/噸,3、HPB300材質(zhì)8-10mm高線出廠指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3440元/噸。2.8月9日漣鋼建材出廠價(jià)格平穩(wěn),現(xiàn)HRB400E材質(zhì)Φ18mm螺紋鋼指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3320元/噸?！?a target="_blank">市場(chǎng)價(jià)格變化】： 表1 湖南市場(chǎng)建材的價(jià)格 單位（元/噸）本周兩湖現(xiàn)貨市價(jià)偏弱運(yùn)行，跌幅30-40，今長(zhǎng)沙萍鋼螺紋基價(jià)3130元/噸較周一跌30，本周盤螺走勢(shì)依舊欠佳，市場(chǎng)交投氛圍比上周略有恢復(fù)，但是市場(chǎng)情緒沒有明顯好轉(zhuǎn)，商家操作上依舊以出貨為主，今受盤中拉漲影響，部分經(jīng)銷商少量補(bǔ)庫，整體成交日環(huán)比稍有增加，但增量相對(duì)有限，據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)今長(zhǎng)沙十家大戶出貨6980噸，商家出貨量多在150-600噸之間，下游觀望情緒濃，原料端支撐減弱，預(yù)計(jì)短期湖南建材市價(jià)難漲?！臼袌?chǎng)庫存變化】：表2 長(zhǎng)沙建材市場(chǎng)庫存變化匯總（單位：萬噸）目前湖南市價(jià)偏弱運(yùn)行，部分高價(jià)資源成交更是寥寥，現(xiàn)省內(nèi)主要流通鋼廠供應(yīng)量穩(wěn)中有降，弱供應(yīng)匹配弱需求，整體呈現(xiàn)弱平衡狀態(tài)。庫存方面，本周長(zhǎng)沙建材社會(huì)庫存30.45萬噸，較上周減少1.41萬噸，其中螺紋鋼庫存23.88萬噸，盤線6.57萬噸；懷化1.2萬噸，衡陽3.9萬噸，湘潭0.65萬噸，婁底3.5萬噸。據(jù)了解，各地都有新標(biāo)到貨，整體量偏少，也有個(gè)別區(qū)域新標(biāo)庫存占市場(chǎng)庫存1/3，目前商家依舊以舊標(biāo)出貨為主，成交不及預(yù)期，預(yù)計(jì)短期供應(yīng)壓力仍在?！竞?a target="_blank">廢鋼】昨日至今，本地鋼廠偏弱運(yùn)行，漣鋼跌20，衡鋼跌20，冷鋼跌20。現(xiàn)湖南市場(chǎng)主流成交價(jià)：重廢6厚2160-2210，鋼筋頭2310-2360，機(jī)生鐵2130-2180。湖南省共4家樣本鋼廠廢鋼到貨量為1.50萬噸/天，較前一工作日增加0.22萬噸。盤面延續(xù)弱態(tài)運(yùn)行，市場(chǎng)恐跌情緒濃厚，商戶加快了出貨速度，省內(nèi)到貨略有增加。當(dāng)前成品銷售一直處于低位，鋼廠仍于虧損狀態(tài)，供需雙弱的情況下，鋼企生產(chǎn)動(dòng)力不足。因此，預(yù)計(jì)短期本地廢鋼仍偏弱運(yùn)行?！竞系貐^(qū)短期預(yù)測(cè)】：本周市價(jià)依舊偏弱運(yùn)行，跌幅在30-50，目前省內(nèi)建筑鋼材呈現(xiàn)供需弱平衡狀態(tài)，庫存延續(xù)弱勢(shì)下降趨勢(shì)，焦炭第三輪提降，原料端支撐走弱，盤面對(duì)現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格影響仍在，宏觀面暫無利好，從技術(shù)面看盤面或仍將下行，目前省內(nèi)鋼廠多減產(chǎn)檢修，市場(chǎng)情緒稍有緩和，下周天氣開始出現(xiàn)小小降溫，疊加減產(chǎn)持續(xù)推進(jìn)對(duì)底部?jī)r(jià)格形成支撐，市場(chǎng)繼續(xù)下行空間會(huì)收窄，綜合考慮，預(yù)計(jì)下周市價(jià)震蕩偏弱，幅度20-30。 1備注：數(shù)據(jù)僅供參考，不作為投資依據(jù)。
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