需求邊際改善,廠商推漲,多空交織下鋼價仍有上行空間？
發(fā)布時間：2024-09-14 22:08
編輯：達物
來源：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)
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table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}創(chuàng)大鋼鐵資訊9月14日消息:【宏觀信息】1.據(jù)美國貿(mào)易代表辦公室發(fā)布的一份聲明，當?shù)貢r間9月13日，美國拜登政府表示，美國最終確定對某些中國制造的產(chǎn)品提高關稅。美國貿(mào)易代表辦公室稱，自9月27日起，中國制造的電動汽車的關稅稅率將上調(diào)至100%，太陽能電池的關稅稅率將上調(diào)至50%，電動汽車電池、關鍵礦產(chǎn)、鋼鐵、鋁、口罩和岸邊集裝箱起重機的關稅稅率將上調(diào)至25%，而包括半導體芯片在內(nèi)的其他產(chǎn)品的關稅上調(diào)也將在未來兩年內(nèi)生效。2.中鋼協(xié)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2024年9月上旬重點統(tǒng)計鋼鐵企業(yè)共生產(chǎn)粗鋼1936萬噸，平均日產(chǎn)193.6萬噸，日產(chǎn)環(huán)比增長2.7%；生鐵1783萬噸，平均日產(chǎn)178.3萬噸，日產(chǎn)環(huán)比增長1.6%；鋼材1865萬噸，平均日產(chǎn)186.5萬噸，日產(chǎn)環(huán)比下降4.6%。據(jù)此估算，本旬全國日產(chǎn)粗鋼263萬噸、環(huán)比增長2.0%，日產(chǎn)生鐵224萬噸、環(huán)比增長1.2%，日產(chǎn)鋼材378萬噸、環(huán)比下降1.4%。【原料信息】1.焦炭：據(jù)國家統(tǒng)計局數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2024年8月份，全國焦炭產(chǎn)量4089萬噸，同比下降2.1%；1-8月，全國焦炭產(chǎn)量32478萬噸，同比下降0.4%。2.鐵礦石：臨近假期市場活躍度轉弱，本周鋼廠補庫情緒有所上升，總庫存出現(xiàn)明顯的累庫趨勢，礦價也因為市場整體活躍度的上升表現(xiàn)堅挺，短期來看鋼廠生產(chǎn)節(jié)奏將會繼續(xù)維持上升趨勢，對于原料端來說有了需求支撐，但是從近期的價格驅動來看，鋼材和焦炭由于基本面以及企業(yè)調(diào)價的緣故上漲動力偏強，鐵礦石自身缺乏外部因素，被基本面所拖累，價格驅動相對偏弱?！句搹S調(diào)價】：1.9月14日漣鋼建材出廠價格平穩(wěn)（噸價，下同）,現(xiàn)HRB400E材質Φ18mm螺紋鋼指導價執(zhí)行3230元/噸,上述價格自2024年9月14日起執(zhí)行。2.9月14日湘鋼建材出廠價格上調(diào)20元（噸價，下同）,1、HRB400E材質18mm螺紋鋼出廠指導價執(zhí)行3210元/噸,2、HRB400E材質8-10mm盤螺出廠指導價執(zhí)行3380元/噸,3、HPB300材質8-10mm高線出廠指導價執(zhí)行3430元/噸,上述價格自2024年9月14日起執(zhí)行。【市場價格變化】： 表1 湖南市場建材的價格 單位（元/噸）本周湖南現(xiàn)貨市價震蕩偏強運行，漲幅150-180，今長沙萍鋼螺紋基價3210元/噸較周一漲180，本周美聯(lián)儲降息預期增強，鋼廠產(chǎn)量偏低加之節(jié)前存在補庫需求，市價上漲較快，現(xiàn)隨著假期的到來，市場節(jié)日氛圍漸濃，成交情況有所放緩。據(jù)統(tǒng)計今長沙十家大戶出貨5480噸，長沙個別大戶成交能有千把噸，部分商家未有出貨，目前省內(nèi)供應未有明顯增加，建材庫存持續(xù)去化，部分品規(guī)出現(xiàn)缺貨現(xiàn)象，對價格存在一定支撐，預計短期湖南建材市價較為堅挺?！臼袌鰩齑孀兓浚罕? 長沙建材市場庫存變化匯總（單位：萬噸）目前湖南市價偏強運行，現(xiàn)貨市場成交較上周明顯增量，受盤面和需求影響，市場交投氛圍向好，鋼廠庫存在低位，市場庫存仍在下降，本周長沙建材社會庫存21.89萬噸，較上周減少2.47萬噸，其中螺紋鋼庫存17.37萬噸，盤線4.52萬噸；衡陽2.3萬噸，婁底3萬噸，懷化0.78萬噸，湘潭0.6萬噸?，F(xiàn)鋼廠利潤有所修復，但整體產(chǎn)能仍在低位，現(xiàn)處傳統(tǒng)旺季，下游有一定剛需，且十一將近，預計短期供需邊際改善。【湖南地區(qū)后期預測】：本周兩湖現(xiàn)貨市價偏強運行，漲幅120-180，省內(nèi)鋼廠繼續(xù)維持不飽和生產(chǎn)，積極推漲指導價，現(xiàn)貨市場挺價情緒較強，市場庫存延續(xù)去化趨勢，下游需求回升，市場信心增強，商家?guī)齑嫫痛嬖谘a貨需求，考慮到美國對華上調(diào)關稅對鋼價影響偏空，預計下周鋼價震蕩偏強，幅度30-60。
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