供需矛盾暫不突出,需求仍有韌性,節(jié)前鋼價(jià)走勢(shì)明朗！
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2024-09-20 22:27
編輯：達(dá)物
來(lái)源：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)
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table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}創(chuàng)大鋼鐵資訊9月20日消息:【宏觀信息】1.中國(guó)人民銀行授權(quán)全國(guó)銀行間同業(yè)拆借中心公布，2024年9月20日貸款市場(chǎng)報(bào)價(jià)利率（LPR）為：1年期LPR為3.35%，5年期以上LPR為3.85%。1年期和5年期均維持不變。2.【財(cái)政部：1—8月全國(guó)一般公共預(yù)算收入同比下降2.6%】 財(cái)政部數(shù)據(jù)顯示，1—8月，全國(guó)一般公共預(yù)算收入147776億元，同比下降2.6%，印花稅2233億元，同比下降23.1%。其中，證券交易印花稅653億元，同比下降55.5%。土地和房地產(chǎn)相關(guān)稅收中，房產(chǎn)稅2967億元，同比增長(zhǎng)20.1%；土地增值稅3632億元，同比下降8.7%。1—8月，全國(guó)一般公共預(yù)算支出173898億元，同比增長(zhǎng)1.5%?！驹闲畔ⅰ?.焦炭：隨著焦炭首輪提漲落地，焦企利潤(rùn)稍有修復(fù)，而近期原料端焦煤競(jìng)拍市場(chǎng)成交有所好轉(zhuǎn)，部分焦企因虧損有減產(chǎn)現(xiàn)象，且臨近國(guó)慶假期，下游鋼廠及中間投機(jī)貿(mào)易商采購(gòu)積極性增加，焦企出貨節(jié)奏加快，焦炭供應(yīng)仍有收緊預(yù)期。需求方面，鋼廠開(kāi)始陸續(xù)復(fù)產(chǎn)，對(duì)焦炭剛需回升，且部分貿(mào)易商積極采購(gòu)分流貨源，廠內(nèi)焦炭庫(kù)存多有回落，部分鋼廠補(bǔ)庫(kù)節(jié)奏加快。預(yù)計(jì)短期內(nèi)焦炭市場(chǎng)穩(wěn)中趨強(qiáng)運(yùn)行。2.鐵礦石：降息影響、高爐復(fù)產(chǎn)以及節(jié)前補(bǔ)庫(kù)預(yù)期支撐下，短期料礦價(jià)偏強(qiáng)為主。但需求仍弱，以及鐵礦供應(yīng)端減量不足，而鋼企維持低庫(kù)存，采購(gòu)積極性偏低影響下，上方反彈空間有限?？傮w上經(jīng)濟(jì)下行的擔(dān)憂以及鐵水總量下降，參與者心態(tài)難以提振，市場(chǎng)流通受限，大趨勢(shì)礦價(jià)仍以下行看待?！句搹S調(diào)價(jià)】：1.9月20日漣鋼建材出廠價(jià)格上調(diào)20元（噸價(jià)，下同）：現(xiàn)HRB400E材質(zhì)Φ18mm螺紋鋼指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3260元/噸；上述價(jià)格自2024年9月20日起執(zhí)行。2.9月20日湘鋼建材出廠價(jià)格上調(diào)20元（噸價(jià)，下同）：1、HRB400E材質(zhì)18mm螺紋鋼出廠指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3250元/噸；2、HRB400E材質(zhì)8-10mm盤(pán)螺出廠指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3420元/噸；3、HPB300材質(zhì)8-10mm高線出廠指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3470元/噸；上述價(jià)格自2024年9月20日起執(zhí)行?！?a target="_blank">市場(chǎng)價(jià)格變化】： 表1 湖南市場(chǎng)建材的價(jià)格 單位（元/噸）本周湖南現(xiàn)貨市價(jià)震蕩偏強(qiáng)運(yùn)行，漲幅10-30，今長(zhǎng)沙萍鋼螺紋基價(jià)3240元/噸較周一漲10，本周美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)超預(yù)期降息，提振了市場(chǎng)情緒，投機(jī)需求顯現(xiàn)，成交火爆，今隨著期螺震蕩下行，市場(chǎng)情緒不穩(wěn)，五大材周度數(shù)據(jù)偏利空，市場(chǎng)高價(jià)出貨受限，成交較上一日明顯下滑，據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)今長(zhǎng)沙十家大戶出貨7120噸，部分商家成交未有200噸，目前省內(nèi)螺紋產(chǎn)量小幅增加，建材庫(kù)存持續(xù)去化，整體資源不多，假期臨近市場(chǎng)有一定需求，預(yù)計(jì)短期湖南建材市價(jià)堅(jiān)挺。【市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存變化】：表2 長(zhǎng)沙建材市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存變化匯總（單位：萬(wàn)噸）目前湖南市價(jià)偏強(qiáng)運(yùn)行，現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)成交整體一般，成交量增減多受期螺影響，鋼廠庫(kù)存在低位，市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存持續(xù)下降，本周長(zhǎng)沙建材社會(huì)庫(kù)存20.34萬(wàn)噸，較上周減少1.55萬(wàn)噸，其中螺紋鋼庫(kù)存15.96萬(wàn)噸，盤(pán)線4.38萬(wàn)噸；衡陽(yáng)3萬(wàn)噸，婁底3.2萬(wàn)噸，懷化0.7萬(wàn)噸，湘潭0.65萬(wàn)噸。本周鋼廠產(chǎn)能利用率有小幅提升，主要用于生產(chǎn)線材，預(yù)計(jì)短期供需矛盾暫不突出?！竞系貐^(qū)后期預(yù)測(cè)】：本周兩湖現(xiàn)貨市價(jià)偏強(qiáng)運(yùn)行，漲幅10-30，部分鋼材資源緊缺，市場(chǎng)挺價(jià)意愿明顯，鋼廠生產(chǎn)利潤(rùn)逐漸好轉(zhuǎn)，復(fù)產(chǎn)節(jié)奏稍有加快，然整體產(chǎn)量仍處低位，社會(huì)庫(kù)存保持下降態(tài)勢(shì)，焦炭首輪提漲落地，后期仍有提漲預(yù)期，成本端尚有支撐，目前市場(chǎng)觀望情緒較濃，貿(mào)易商積極套現(xiàn)，落袋為安。下周為國(guó)慶節(jié)前最后一周，部分終端項(xiàng)目存在一定補(bǔ)庫(kù)意愿，需求仍有韌性，綜合考慮，預(yù)計(jì)下周鋼價(jià)震蕩偏強(qiáng)，幅度20-50。
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