基本面維持弱平衡,鐵水產(chǎn)量減少,短期鋼價(jià)走勢(shì)明朗！
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2024-11-08 21:33
編輯：達(dá)物
來(lái)源：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)
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table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}創(chuàng)大鋼鐵資訊11月8日消息:【宏觀信息】1.【直接安排10萬(wàn)億元 地方政府化債壓力將大大減輕】11月8日電，財(cái)政部部長(zhǎng)藍(lán)佛安在11月8日舉行的十四屆全國(guó)人大常委會(huì)第十二次會(huì)議新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上介紹，從2024年開(kāi)始，我國(guó)將連續(xù)五年每年從新增地方政府專(zhuān)項(xiàng)債券中安排8000億元，專(zhuān)門(mén)用于化債，累計(jì)可置換隱性債務(wù)4萬(wàn)億元。再加上這次全國(guó)人大常委會(huì)批準(zhǔn)的6萬(wàn)億元債務(wù)限額，直接增加地方化債資源10萬(wàn)億元。同時(shí)也明確，2029年及以后到期的棚戶(hù)區(qū)改造隱性債務(wù)2萬(wàn)億元，仍按原合同償還。藍(lán)佛安表示，政策協(xié)同發(fā)力后，2028年之前，地方需要消化的隱性債務(wù)總額從14.3萬(wàn)億元大幅下降至2.3萬(wàn)億元，化債壓力大大減輕?！驹闲畔ⅰ?.焦炭：隨著主流鋼廠對(duì)焦炭價(jià)格調(diào)整，第二輪提降快速落地，本輪降幅50-55元/噸。焦企方面出貨較為積極，部分焦企庫(kù)存稍有累積。原料端煉焦煤價(jià)格穩(wěn)中偏弱，多煤種價(jià)格延續(xù)弱勢(shì)，焦炭成本支撐減弱。鋼材即將進(jìn)入消費(fèi)淡季，整體成交一般，鋼材價(jià)格多震蕩調(diào)整，鋼廠開(kāi)工率較高，對(duì)焦炭有一定的采購(gòu)需求，但隨著鋼廠庫(kù)存回升，部分鋼廠開(kāi)始放緩采購(gòu)節(jié)奏。預(yù)計(jì)短期焦炭市場(chǎng)偏弱運(yùn)行。2.鐵礦石：今日市場(chǎng)價(jià)格出現(xiàn)了大幅的回落，今天最主要的市場(chǎng)關(guān)注點(diǎn)在于人大會(huì)議給出的財(cái)政政策的結(jié)果，而最終結(jié)果顯示增加地方政府債務(wù)限額6萬(wàn)億元，是近年來(lái)力度最大的化債措施，但也側(cè)面反映出了對(duì)于其他方面的經(jīng)歷刺激力度將會(huì)低于此前大家的預(yù)期，市場(chǎng)情緒短低落造成價(jià)格短期內(nèi)加速下跌，短期來(lái)看，政策端的交易影響或?qū)⒙趸?，而產(chǎn)業(yè)端本周的情況也同樣走弱，后續(xù)將考驗(yàn)的是需求淡季的交易預(yù)期是否會(huì)兌現(xiàn)，鐵礦石期貨主力價(jià)格預(yù)計(jì)在750-790運(yùn)行，普氏指數(shù)參考97-104美元。3.廢鋼：昨日至今，本地變化不大?，F(xiàn)湖南市場(chǎng)主流成交價(jià)：重廢6厚2230-2280，鋼筋頭2240-2290，機(jī)生鐵2160-2210。湖南省共4家樣本鋼廠廢鋼到貨量為1.79萬(wàn)噸/天，較前一工作日減少0.11萬(wàn)噸。眼下期螺走勢(shì)震蕩，市場(chǎng)觀望態(tài)勢(shì)漸濃，鋼廠到貨有所減少。后市來(lái)看，成品表現(xiàn)一般，短期存在不穩(wěn)定的因素，因此預(yù)測(cè)本地廢鋼多跟隨周邊行情變動(dòng)，建議商家逢高出貨為宜?！句搹S調(diào)價(jià)】：1.11月8日湘鋼建材出廠價(jià)格平穩(wěn)（噸價(jià)，下同）,1、HRB400E材質(zhì)18mm螺紋鋼出廠指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3520元/噸,2、HRB400E材質(zhì)8-10mm盤(pán)螺出廠指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3710元/噸,3、HPB300材質(zhì)8-10mm高線出廠指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3720元/噸,上述價(jià)格自2024年11月8日起執(zhí)行。2.11月8日漣鋼建材出廠價(jià)格上調(diào)20元（噸價(jià)，下同）,現(xiàn)HRB400E材質(zhì)Φ18mm螺紋鋼指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3570元/噸,上述價(jià)格自2024年11月8日起執(zhí)行。 【市場(chǎng)價(jià)格變化】： 表1 湖南市場(chǎng)建材的價(jià)格 單位（元/噸）本周湖南地區(qū)現(xiàn)貨市價(jià)震蕩偏強(qiáng)運(yùn)行，漲幅30-40，今長(zhǎng)沙萍鋼螺紋基價(jià)3500元/噸較周一漲40，本周盤(pán)面先強(qiáng)后弱，周初政策預(yù)期強(qiáng)，市場(chǎng)投機(jī)需求增多，隨著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)降息25個(gè)基點(diǎn)，符合市場(chǎng)預(yù)期；國(guó)內(nèi)今天人大會(huì)結(jié)束，不及市場(chǎng)預(yù)期，據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)今長(zhǎng)沙十家大戶(hù)出貨6740噸，成交較昨減少，部分主流大戶(hù)成交有未有2千噸，下游操作謹(jǐn)慎，鐵水有見(jiàn)頂跡象，成本支撐走弱，宏觀預(yù)期偏弱，預(yù)計(jì)短期湖南建材市價(jià)震蕩走弱。【市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存變化】：表2 長(zhǎng)沙建材市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存變化匯總（單位：萬(wàn)噸）今現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)成交量平平，XG日產(chǎn)500噸，LG日產(chǎn)3000噸，鋼廠產(chǎn)能利用率較上周下降，市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存持續(xù)去化，長(zhǎng)沙建材社會(huì)庫(kù)存15.46萬(wàn)噸，較上周減少1.12萬(wàn)噸，其中螺紋鋼庫(kù)存10.22萬(wàn)噸，盤(pán)線5.24萬(wàn)噸；衡陽(yáng)0.9萬(wàn)噸減0.1萬(wàn)噸，婁底3.8萬(wàn)噸減0.9萬(wàn)噸，懷化1.8萬(wàn)噸減0.2萬(wàn)噸，湘潭0.4萬(wàn)噸減0.04萬(wàn)噸，鋼廠庫(kù)存處于低位。目前來(lái)看，淡季實(shí)際需求有限，供需弱平衡暫維持，鐵水產(chǎn)量下降偏空原料，預(yù)計(jì)短期市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存仍會(huì)去化?！竞系貐^(qū)后期預(yù)測(cè)】：美國(guó)大選、美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)降息以及人大會(huì)議均已結(jié)束，市場(chǎng)往基本面方向轉(zhuǎn)移，目前鋼廠生產(chǎn)不積極，建筑鋼材產(chǎn)能偏低，廠內(nèi)庫(kù)存不高，市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存持續(xù)去化，鐵水有見(jiàn)頂跡象，焦炭第二輪提降落地，原料端支撐走弱，宏觀政策不及預(yù)期，市場(chǎng)謹(jǐn)慎觀望情緒較濃，鋼廠挺價(jià)意愿尚在，綜合考慮，預(yù)計(jì)下周鋼價(jià)震蕩偏弱，幅度40-60。
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