外來資源增多,冬儲意向較低,鋼價下跌成定局？
發(fā)布時間：2024-12-06 17:59
編輯：達物
來源：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)
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table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}1v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}11創(chuàng)大鋼鐵資訊12月6日消息:【宏觀信息】1.12月6日，根據(jù)財政部、國家稅務(wù)總局、住房城鄉(xiāng)建設(shè)部近日發(fā)布的《關(guān)于促進房地產(chǎn)市場平穩(wěn)健康發(fā)展有關(guān)稅收政策的公告》，自12月1日起，對個人購買家庭唯一或第二套住房，面積為140平方米及以下的，減按1%的稅率征收契稅；面積為140平方米以上的唯一或第二套住房，分別減按1.5%、2%的稅率征收契稅。北京、上海、廣州和深圳也能享受購買第二套住房契稅優(yōu)惠政策。國家稅務(wù)總局最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，12月1日至5日，全國共有36.4萬戶購房家庭申報享受了契稅稅收優(yōu)惠，累計減免契稅84億元，戶均減免2.3萬元。【原料信息】1.焦炭：產(chǎn)地焦企開工繼續(xù)保持高位水平，焦炭產(chǎn)量相對穩(wěn)定，出貨較為積極。季節(jié)性需求淡季預(yù)期下，鋼坯價格持續(xù)窄幅下行，鋼材基本面邊際轉(zhuǎn)弱，鋼廠利潤空間收縮，部分鋼廠檢修計劃逐漸增多，外加原料成本持續(xù)回落，成本支撐轉(zhuǎn)弱，整體看焦炭基本面略顯寬松，焦炭開啟第四輪下降，預(yù)計短期焦炭市場穩(wěn)中偏弱運行。2.廢鋼：目前影響廢鋼走勢的因素有：1、河北焦炭新一輪提降，廢鋼性價比下滑；2、黑色系盤中偏弱，期螺繼續(xù)持綠下行，市場預(yù)期不佳；3、近期暫無利好政策刺激，商家恐慌出貨，鋼企被動補庫，多順勢壓價。綜合來看，近幾日期現(xiàn)轉(zhuǎn)弱，引發(fā)市場恐慌，主流鋼廠到貨明顯上升，疊加焦炭提降，成品淡季銷量不佳等因素，廢鋼支撐較弱，連續(xù)小幅下調(diào)?？紤]到目前整體資源偏緊，且月中經(jīng)濟會議或有利好消息刺激，短期暫無大跌風險，多隨盤面窄幅調(diào)整，預(yù)計短期廢鋼窄幅偏弱運行。【鋼廠調(diào)價】：1.12月6日湘鋼建材出廠價格下調(diào)20元（噸價，下同）,1、HRB400E材質(zhì)18mm螺紋鋼出廠指導(dǎo)價執(zhí)行3400元/噸,2、HRB400E材質(zhì)8-10mm盤螺出廠指導(dǎo)價執(zhí)行3480元/噸,3、HPB300材質(zhì)8-10mm高線出廠指導(dǎo)價執(zhí)行3600元/噸,上述價格自2024年12月6日起執(zhí)行。2.12月6日漣鋼建材出廠價格平穩(wěn)（噸價，下同）,現(xiàn)HRB400E材質(zhì)Φ18mm螺紋鋼指導(dǎo)價執(zhí)行3470元/噸,上述價格自2024年12月6日起執(zhí)行。【市場價格變化】： 表1 湖南市場建材的價格 單位（元/噸）本周湖南現(xiàn)貨市價震蕩下調(diào)，幅度20-50，今長沙萍鋼螺紋基價3350元/噸較周一跌50，本周盤面先強后弱，隨著昨盤面跌幅擴大，現(xiàn)貨價格開始持續(xù)下調(diào)，周四是成交低谷，不少代理成交都難有兩百噸，今盤面仍就下行，市場低價增多，部分商家仍未有成交，從上周起就有商家反饋需求較弱尤其是縣級市及以下，剛需偏多的是廠房，商家對冬儲都保持謹慎觀望，少數(shù)商家做了些外來低價盤螺，綜合考慮，短期鋼價或會小幅下調(diào)。【市場庫存變化】：表2 長沙建材市場庫存變化匯總（單位：萬噸）目前湖南建材庫存處年內(nèi)低位，市場庫存去化放緩，基本面矛盾暫且不大，現(xiàn)鋼廠多處于檢修減產(chǎn)，據(jù)了解XG停產(chǎn)，LG周產(chǎn)1萬噸，鋼廠庫存偏低，生產(chǎn)不積極，市場外來品牌增多，低價資源不少，市場整體庫存處于中低位，據(jù)了解長沙建材社會庫存18.04萬噸，較上周增加0.81萬噸，其中螺紋鋼庫存11.32萬噸，盤線6.72萬噸；衡陽0.9萬噸減0.1萬噸，婁底3.8萬噸增0.2萬噸，懷化1.5萬噸減0.1萬噸，湘潭0.52萬噸增0.04萬噸，本周市場成交較上周減少，預(yù)計短期市場庫存仍會增加?！竞系貐^(qū)后期預(yù)測】：目前基本面矛盾有限，供需弱平衡維持，原料端有下調(diào)趨勢，宏觀政策預(yù)期有所較弱，商家近期出貨多是倒掛，進一步影響商家冬儲意向，多數(shù)商戶保持低庫存，對明年市場的看法并不樂觀，目前低價資源的流入，已經(jīng)對盤螺價格產(chǎn)生明顯影響，螺紋盤螺價差仍在縮小，明年鐵礦發(fā)運增量，原料端價格難像今年這般堅挺，實際需求預(yù)計也將走弱，商家對冬儲意向不高，為促進商家冬儲意向，預(yù)計鋼價仍要下調(diào)。
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