盤面飄綠,北材南下沖擊市場(chǎng),鋼價(jià)易跌難漲？
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2024-12-13 23:09
編輯：達(dá)物
來源：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)
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table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}創(chuàng)大鋼鐵資訊12月13日消息:【宏觀信息】1.中央經(jīng)濟(jì)工作會(huì)議12月11日至12日在北京舉行。中金公司研究部認(rèn)為，在中央經(jīng)濟(jì)工作會(huì)議之前，12月9日召開的中央政治局會(huì)議已經(jīng)奠定了明年經(jīng)濟(jì)工作的基本基調(diào)，“擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需”“超常規(guī)逆周期調(diào)節(jié)”“穩(wěn)定樓市股市”以及民生消費(fèi)等方面的政策成為市場(chǎng)關(guān)注熱點(diǎn)。預(yù)計(jì)為了配合政府債發(fā)行、信貸投放以及季節(jié)性的流動(dòng)性需求，降準(zhǔn)在春節(jié)前就可能實(shí)施，降息亦有可能隨著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)降息而逐步推進(jìn)。過去一段時(shí)間內(nèi)，央行已經(jīng)建立了國債買賣工具、證券基金保險(xiǎn)公司互換便利、保障性住房再貸款等新型貨幣工具，在股票、債券、地產(chǎn)等市場(chǎng)上發(fā)揮作用的能力已經(jīng)加強(qiáng)，未來可能還會(huì)進(jìn)一步設(shè)立其他新型工具。2.央行：11月末，廣義貨幣(M2)余額311.96萬億元，同比增長7.1%。狹義貨幣(M1)余額65.09萬億元，同比下降3.7%。流通中貨幣(M0)余額12.42萬億元，同比增長12.7%。前十一個(gè)月凈投放現(xiàn)金1.07萬億元?！驹闲畔ⅰ?.焦炭：目前焦企開工高穩(wěn)，積極出貨為主，且原料煤價(jià)格持續(xù)下移情況下，焦企盈利方面尚可，焦炭供應(yīng)維持穩(wěn)定，整體呈寬松格局。部分下游仍在小幅增庫，但隨著鋼廠檢修數(shù)量增多，現(xiàn)階段對(duì)焦炭需求增量空問有限。預(yù)計(jì)短期內(nèi)焦炭?jī)r(jià)格持穩(wěn)運(yùn)行。2.廢鋼：目前影響廢鋼走勢(shì)的因素有：1、近期螺跳水，市場(chǎng)恐跌情緒影響下，出貨速度加快；2、鐵水性價(jià)比較廢鋼更有優(yōu)勢(shì)，短期廢鋼承壓；3、天氣寒冷，市場(chǎng)資源緊缺惜售態(tài)度明顯，鋼企小幅拉漲進(jìn)行吸貨。綜合來看：隨著盤面回落，恐跌情緒蔓延，各鋼廠到貨增加，部分鋼企小幅下調(diào)采購價(jià)格，考慮到市場(chǎng)廢鋼資源較少，且年底將近，部分鋼企冬儲(chǔ)需求仍存，廢鋼支撐尚可，預(yù)計(jì)廢鋼價(jià)格多窄幅調(diào)整為主?！句搹S調(diào)價(jià)】：1.12月13日湘鋼建材出廠價(jià)格下調(diào)20元（噸價(jià)，下同）,1、HRB400E材質(zhì)18mm螺紋鋼出廠指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3420元/噸,2、HRB400E材質(zhì)8-10mm盤螺出廠指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3500元/噸,3、HPB300材質(zhì)8-10mm高線出廠指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3620元/噸,上述價(jià)格自2024年12月13日起執(zhí)行。 2.12月13日漣鋼建材出廠價(jià)格平穩(wěn)（噸價(jià)，下同）,現(xiàn)HRB400E材質(zhì)Φ18mm螺紋鋼指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3490元/噸,上述價(jià)格自2024年12月13日起執(zhí)行。 【市場(chǎng)價(jià)格變化】： 表1 湖南市場(chǎng)螺紋的價(jià)格 單位（元/噸）本周湖南現(xiàn)貨市價(jià)先強(qiáng)后弱，整體漲幅20-30，今長沙萍鋼螺紋基價(jià)3360元/噸較周一漲20，本周初盤面拉漲，鋼廠推漲積極，市價(jià)上行成交增量，隨著中央經(jīng)濟(jì)工作會(huì)議落地，盤面下跌，商家報(bào)價(jià)下調(diào)，成交受阻，部分代理反映期螺上漲的情況下能有三百多噸，期螺一旦持綠最多也就一百多噸，現(xiàn)市場(chǎng)需求有限，存在競(jìng)價(jià)出售導(dǎo)致整體價(jià)格偏混亂現(xiàn)象，淡季效應(yīng)下，市價(jià)上漲多受宏觀政策利好擾動(dòng)，然炒作信息提振有限，綜合考慮，短期鋼價(jià)難漲?！臼袌?chǎng)庫存變化】： 表2 湖南建材市場(chǎng)庫存變化匯總（單位：萬噸）目前北材南下，龍鋼、水鋼、寧鋼等資源陸續(xù)到貨，加上本地主要流通資源內(nèi)卷嚴(yán)重，市場(chǎng)整體價(jià)格易跌難漲。鋼廠方面，本周湘鋼、漣鋼有高爐檢修仍在繼續(xù)，配套軋線產(chǎn)量保持低位運(yùn)行。建筑鋼材市場(chǎng)庫存小幅下降，長沙建材社會(huì)庫存17.45萬噸，較上周減少0.59萬噸，其中螺紋鋼庫存10.61萬噸，盤線6.84萬噸；衡陽1.2萬噸增0.3萬噸，婁底4萬噸增0.2萬噸，懷化1.5萬噸，湘潭0.48萬噸減0.04萬噸，淡季需求下滑，成交受限，預(yù)計(jì)短期市場(chǎng)庫存去化放緩?！竞系貐^(qū)后期預(yù)測(cè)】：目前，鋼廠生產(chǎn)不積極產(chǎn)量較少，加之外來資源抵運(yùn)，市場(chǎng)價(jià)格內(nèi)卷嚴(yán)重，商家明顯感覺出貨受限，12月中下旬依舊有宏觀大事件，然商家心態(tài)偏疲軟，操作都較謹(jǐn)慎，原料方面，鐵水產(chǎn)量下降，焦炭第四輪提降落地，臨近冬儲(chǔ)，市場(chǎng)拿貨意愿仍偏弱，綜合考慮，預(yù)計(jì)后期鋼價(jià)仍要下調(diào)。
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