鋼廠檢修減產(chǎn),冬儲積極性不足,鋼價上漲沒戲？
發(fā)布時間：2024-12-27 17:46
編輯：達物
來源：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)
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table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}1v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}11v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}1【宏觀信息】1. 國家外匯局：2024年11月，我國國際收支貨物和服務(wù)貿(mào)易進出口規(guī)模42792億元，同比增長3%。其中，貨物貿(mào)易出口21509億元，進口15663億元，順差5846億元；服務(wù)貿(mào)易出口2362億元，進口3258億元，逆差895億元。服務(wù)貿(mào)易主要項目為：運輸服務(wù)進出口規(guī)模1714億元，旅行服務(wù)進出口規(guī)模1558億元，其他商業(yè)服務(wù)進出口規(guī)模1006億元，電信、計算機和信息服務(wù)進出口規(guī)模610億元?！驹闲畔ⅰ?.焦炭：本周焦炭第五輪提降落地，本輪降幅50-55元/噸。供應(yīng)方面，當前焦企生產(chǎn)積極性尚可，多數(shù)維持前期生產(chǎn)狀態(tài)，產(chǎn)地部分焦企受環(huán)保影響仍保持一定減產(chǎn)現(xiàn)象，但考慮到終端需求依舊乏力，下游剛需持續(xù)偏弱，焦炭供應(yīng)仍處過剩局面。需求方面，鋼材價格震蕩波動，鋼廠檢修減產(chǎn)計劃不斷增加，鐵水產(chǎn)量也呈下滑趨勢，終端需求表現(xiàn)一般，焦炭剛需依舊承壓，鋼廠原料采購積極性不高。港口方面，港口焦炭現(xiàn)貨暫穩(wěn)運行，兩港庫存小幅增加，市場交投氛圍一般。2.廢鋼：目前影響廢鋼走勢的因素有：1、焦炭第五輪提降落地，對于鐵水成本有一定影響；2、期螺走勢不穩(wěn)，利空廢鋼走勢；3、年底將至，鋼企冬儲仍有缺口，對于廢鋼價格有支撐。整體來看，期螺走勢震蕩，部分鋼企因此有小幅調(diào)整動作，但絕大部分鋼企暫持穩(wěn)觀望，想趁此機會補充庫存。因此，在下游成品材沒有太大波動的情況下，預計短期廢鋼作為原料端也難有太大變化，仍將延續(xù)主穩(wěn)個調(diào)行情。【鋼廠調(diào)價】： 1.12月27日湘鋼建材出廠價格平穩(wěn)（噸價，下同）,1、HRB400E材質(zhì)18mm螺紋鋼出廠指導價執(zhí)行3380元/噸,2、HRB400E材質(zhì)8-10mm盤螺出廠指導價執(zhí)行3460元/噸,3、HPB300材質(zhì)8-10mm高線出廠指導價執(zhí)行3580元/噸,上述價格自2024年12月27日起執(zhí)行。 【市場價格變化】： 表1 湖南地區(qū)市場螺紋的價格 單位（元/噸）本周湖南現(xiàn)貨市價先強后弱，幅度10-20，今長沙萍鋼螺紋基價3350元/噸較周一漲10，本周全國財政工作會議在北京召開，市場有利好傳聞炒作，盤面出現(xiàn)短暫提振，隨著需求減弱，政策暫未落地，市場氛圍轉(zhuǎn)淡，省內(nèi)鋼廠產(chǎn)能利用率低，多處于減產(chǎn)停產(chǎn)中，湖南市場資源偏多的有萍鋼，新鋼以及冷鋼，其他資源基本規(guī)格不全，現(xiàn)外圍資源投放減少，庫存持續(xù)減少，基本面壓力并不明顯，淡季深入，成交整體不暢，今統(tǒng)計長沙十幾大戶成交量7050噸，部分代理商成交未有三百噸，綜合考慮，短期鋼價難有上漲?！臼袌鰩齑孀兓浚罕? 湖南建材市場庫存變化匯總（單位：萬噸）目前湖南建材庫存處年內(nèi)低位，市場庫存仍在去化，基本面供需兩弱，省內(nèi)鋼廠多處于檢修減產(chǎn)，據(jù)了解LG停產(chǎn)，XG月產(chǎn)1.5萬噸，LG日產(chǎn)6千噸，目前鋼廠庫存普遍較低，據(jù)了解長沙建材社會庫存14.58萬噸；衡陽0.9萬噸，懷化1萬噸，婁底3.4萬噸，湘潭0.36萬噸，現(xiàn)市場冬儲暫未開啟，部分代理商不再續(xù)簽代理合同，商家對來年市場信心不足，預計短期市場庫存壓力不大?！竞系貐^(qū)后期預測】：臨近年底，鋼貿(mào)商冬儲積極性不足，鋼價難有上漲動力。進入物流停運倒計時，下游工地陸續(xù)停工，淡季需求不多，鋼廠多檢修，庫存保持低位去化，產(chǎn)業(yè)端矛盾不突出。宏觀方面，國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟形勢偏弱，現(xiàn)處政策空窗期，決定鋼材價格長周期承壓。焦炭第五輪提降落地，鐵水持續(xù)下行，原料壓力將逐漸增大，預計短期鋼價仍要下調(diào)。 免責聲明：以上內(nèi)容及信息源于公開資料。上文所闡述的觀點結(jié)論和建議可供參考，不構(gòu)成所述或期貨品種的買賣出價或征價，在任何情況下，本公司不對客戶因使用報告中內(nèi)容所引致的一切損失負責任，客戶需自行承擔全部風險。 1備注：數(shù)據(jù)僅供參考，不作為投資依據(jù)。
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