市場(chǎng)資源不多,供需矛盾難擴(kuò)大,節(jié)后走勢(shì)較明朗！
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2025-01-26 17:41
編輯：達(dá)物
來(lái)源：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)
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table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}11創(chuàng)大鋼鐵資訊1月26日消息:【宏觀信息】1.國(guó)家稅務(wù)總局發(fā)布的最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，自2024年12月1日起全國(guó)開(kāi)始實(shí)施房地產(chǎn)交易契稅優(yōu)惠等稅收減免新政策，政策實(shí)施首月，減稅紅利持續(xù)釋放，促進(jìn)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)平穩(wěn)健康發(fā)展。數(shù)據(jù)顯示，房地產(chǎn)稅收新政策實(shí)施首月，全國(guó)購(gòu)房家庭新增減免稅116.9億元。【原料信息】1.焦炭：26日國(guó)內(nèi)焦炭市場(chǎng)暫穩(wěn)運(yùn)行。供應(yīng)方面，臨近春節(jié)假期，原料煤價(jià)格基本企穩(wěn)，焦企利潤(rùn)空間持續(xù)收窄，個(gè)別虧損焦企有減產(chǎn)意愿。但前期原料端讓利明顯，多數(shù)焦企仍能盈利，生產(chǎn)多維持前期狀態(tài)，焦炭供應(yīng)仍在高位。需求方面，鋼廠冬儲(chǔ)補(bǔ)庫(kù)基本完成，廠內(nèi)焦炭庫(kù)存多提至較高水平，且受終端市場(chǎng)淡季影響，鋼廠對(duì)焦炭采購(gòu)需求仍較為平淡。預(yù)計(jì)短期焦炭市場(chǎng)暫穩(wěn)運(yùn)行2.廢鋼：目前影響廢鋼走勢(shì)的因素有：1、臨近春節(jié)，廢鋼基地多停工放假，廢鋼供需兩弱；2、各地出現(xiàn)大幅度降溫、雨雪天氣，廢鋼產(chǎn)出較低；3、物流陸續(xù)停運(yùn)，市場(chǎng)車(chē)運(yùn)資源流通稀少。整體看，眼下距離春節(jié)僅有2天時(shí)間，無(wú)論是供應(yīng)端的廢鋼基地、還是需求端的鋼企、鑄造廠，多數(shù)處于停工態(tài)勢(shì)，廢鋼價(jià)格再變動(dòng)對(duì)供需雙方無(wú)太大意義，預(yù)測(cè)短期持穩(wěn)運(yùn)行。【市場(chǎng)價(jià)格變化】： 表1 鄭州市場(chǎng)螺紋的價(jià)格 單位（元/噸）本周河南市價(jià)穩(wěn)中整理，商家基本休假，市場(chǎng)代理商多以廠發(fā)為主，鋼廠方面仍多檢修減產(chǎn)，規(guī)格不全現(xiàn)象目前仍在，多數(shù)貿(mào)易商選擇鎖貨，臨近春節(jié)假期，廠商基本進(jìn)入休市放假狀態(tài)，且近期受雨雪天氣影響，成交表現(xiàn)零星，目前省內(nèi)建筑鋼廠產(chǎn)能利用率約19%，供應(yīng)端壓力不大，成本端尚有支撐，加上假期鋼價(jià)漲跌對(duì)市場(chǎng)并無(wú)意義，預(yù)計(jì)下周鋼價(jià)持穩(wěn)。【市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存變化】：表2 鄭州地區(qū)建材市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存變化匯總（單位：萬(wàn)噸）目前鄭州地區(qū)市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存小增整體處于低位，據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)鄭州市場(chǎng)建材總庫(kù)存在3.7萬(wàn)，受商家多以廠發(fā)為主影響，河南市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存常年處于低位，且河南省內(nèi)鋼廠近年多轉(zhuǎn)產(chǎn)減產(chǎn)停產(chǎn)，供需矛盾整體不大，受利潤(rùn)影響，外來(lái)資源抵運(yùn)不多，年關(guān)已至，市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存小增，今年冬儲(chǔ)力度不大，考慮到部分鋼廠正常發(fā)貨，預(yù)計(jì)節(jié)后市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存增加。【河南地區(qū)后期預(yù)測(cè)】：目前市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存小增，整體庫(kù)存量仍在偏低位，鋼廠仍多轉(zhuǎn)產(chǎn)停產(chǎn)，供需矛盾很難進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大，多數(shù)商家今年冬儲(chǔ)不多，對(duì)節(jié)后市場(chǎng)持平穩(wěn)樂(lè)觀態(tài)度，節(jié)后對(duì)現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)影響較大的是政策預(yù)期的擾動(dòng)。隨著復(fù)工預(yù)期上升，市場(chǎng)或開(kāi)始炒作和定價(jià)新一輪政策預(yù)期和落地情況，加之開(kāi)門(mén)紅的情緒主導(dǎo)，預(yù)計(jì)節(jié)后市價(jià)或慣性上漲。 免責(zé)聲明：以上內(nèi)容及信息源于公開(kāi)資料。上文所闡述的觀點(diǎn)結(jié)論和建議可供參考，不構(gòu)成所述或期貨品種的買(mǎi)賣(mài)出價(jià)或征價(jià)，在任何情況下，本公司不對(duì)客戶(hù)因使用報(bào)告中內(nèi)容所引致的一切損失負(fù)責(zé)任，客戶(hù)需自行承擔(dān)全部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 1備注：數(shù)據(jù)僅供參考，不作為投資依據(jù)。
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