鋼廠多轉(zhuǎn)產(chǎn)減產(chǎn),成交回暖,鋼價(jià)開啟上漲模式？
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2025-02-26 17:44
編輯：達(dá)物
來源：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)
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創(chuàng)大鋼鐵資訊2月26日消息:【原料信息】1.鐵礦：今日市場再傳粗鋼平控的消息，短時(shí)間內(nèi)消息的影響讓鋼材與原料的價(jià)格走勢(shì)出現(xiàn)了分化，各大鋼廠股受此影響表現(xiàn)出明顯的上漲，成材價(jià)格也同時(shí)共振上行。而原料端短期內(nèi)則是出現(xiàn)了下跌的趨勢(shì)，但是整體的跌幅并不明顯，說明市場對(duì)于消息的判斷仍舊保持較為冷靜的態(tài)度，后續(xù)也漸漸證明了該消息存在一定的水分，產(chǎn)量的調(diào)控或?qū)⑹莵碜愿喾矫娴目剂?。短期來看的話，礦價(jià)仍舊難破當(dāng)前的局面。2.廢鋼：目前影響廢鋼走勢(shì)的因素有：1、焦炭提降落地，廢鋼性價(jià)比減弱，鋼企利潤縮緊；2、鋼廠整體到貨仍維持高位，部分到貨偏好順勢(shì)壓價(jià)；3、受行業(yè)消息刺激帶動(dòng)期現(xiàn)回暖，鋼坯回漲。整體來看，雖隨著期現(xiàn)回暖，市場資源緊張以及對(duì)兩會(huì)預(yù)期仍在等原因下，場地盼漲心態(tài)漸濃，但考慮到當(dāng)前鋼廠整體到貨仍在較高水平，加上成品釋放緩慢，鋼企利潤有限下，鋼廠調(diào)價(jià)意愿偏低，多保持觀望態(tài)度，故預(yù)計(jì)短期內(nèi)市場多持穩(wěn)運(yùn)行，個(gè)別按需調(diào)整。【鋼廠方面】1. 湖南LY暫未生產(chǎn)建材，調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu)生產(chǎn)熱普；2. 湖南XG建材日產(chǎn)500噸，廠內(nèi)未有庫存；3. 湖南LG建材日產(chǎn)6千噸，廠內(nèi)暫無庫存；【市場價(jià)格變化】： 表1 湖南地區(qū)市場螺紋的價(jià)格 單位（元/噸）前兩天市場受反傾銷事件發(fā)酵影響，盤面下行，市場下跌40-60，今受傳聞粗鋼壓減5000萬噸的消息的影響，盤面拉漲，商家大多提漲20出貨，長沙萍鋼成交價(jià)在3320元/噸，據(jù)市場反饋，市場成交火爆，前幾日跌價(jià)行情下游基本觀望，今期螺強(qiáng)勢(shì)拉漲，市場拿貨意愿增強(qiáng)，不少商家成交有上千噸，個(gè)別大戶成交有2-3千噸，兩會(huì)在即，市場預(yù)期尚存，鋼廠量少挺價(jià)意愿較強(qiáng)，預(yù)期短期鋼價(jià)穩(wěn)中偏強(qiáng)。【市場庫存變化】：表2 湖南地區(qū)建材市場庫存變化匯總（單位：萬噸）目前省內(nèi)鋼廠多在減產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)產(chǎn)，省內(nèi)鋼廠多數(shù)保持無庫存狀態(tài)，市場成交隨著旺季來臨有所好轉(zhuǎn)，加之資源到貨量不多，市場整體庫存出現(xiàn)小幅下調(diào)，據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)本周長沙建材社會(huì)庫存23.84萬噸，較上周減少2.51萬噸，其中螺紋鋼庫存17.16萬噸，盤線6.68萬噸；衡陽3.5萬噸；婁底4.2萬噸；湘潭0.72萬噸；懷化2.8萬噸。目前鋼廠方面生產(chǎn)積極性依舊不高，旺季來臨必然伴隨著需求的釋放，商家多數(shù)心態(tài)謹(jǐn)慎，操作以快進(jìn)快出為主，綜合考慮，預(yù)計(jì)下周湖南市場社會(huì)庫存仍會(huì)下降。【湖南地區(qū)后期預(yù)測(cè)】：粗鋼調(diào)控的傳聞引起盤面的拉漲，側(cè)面說明市場盼漲，廠商挺價(jià)意愿較強(qiáng)，焦炭第十輪提降全面落地，成本端支撐一般，廠家生產(chǎn)積極性偏低，下游建材表需回暖，國內(nèi)終端需求改善的預(yù)期增強(qiáng)，宏觀面對(duì)現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格走勢(shì)影響較大，海外風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加劇，兩會(huì)預(yù)期尚存，考慮到會(huì)前政策預(yù)期難以證偽，預(yù)計(jì)下周市價(jià)偏強(qiáng)運(yùn)行，幅度30-60。免責(zé)聲明：以上內(nèi)容及信息源于公開資料。上文所闡述的觀點(diǎn)結(jié)論和建議可供參考，不構(gòu)成所述或期貨品種的買賣出價(jià)或征價(jià)，在任何情況下，本公司不對(duì)客戶因使用報(bào)告中內(nèi)容所引致的一切損失負(fù)責(zé)任，客戶需自行承擔(dān)全部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 1備注：數(shù)據(jù)僅供參考，不作為投資依據(jù)。
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