需求有季節(jié)性回暖趨勢,鋼廠產(chǎn)量增加,鋼價要再次上漲？
發(fā)布時間：2025-02-28 18:09
編輯：達(dá)物
來源：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)
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table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}11創(chuàng)大鋼鐵資訊2月28日消息:【原料信息】1.鐵礦：近期在鋼、焦價格偏強(qiáng)運(yùn)行的情況下，鐵礦石價格支撐松動，前期礦強(qiáng)得益于焦炭讓利，而近些天在十輪降價落地疊加市場消息的擾動，焦煤焦炭價格表現(xiàn)更為強(qiáng)硬，鐵礦又在限產(chǎn)的影響下大幅下跌。短期來看，當(dāng)下消息面或?qū)⒗^續(xù)加強(qiáng)擾動，首先是國外關(guān)稅戰(zhàn)愈演愈烈，對中國的外貿(mào)形勢或?qū)⑿纬梢欢ǖ挠绊?，綜上所述，礦價短期內(nèi)受消息面的影響仍舊較大，在預(yù)期證偽前底部支撐較強(qiáng)，但是也不容易突破當(dāng)前的區(qū)間，所以預(yù)計現(xiàn)貨價格仍會有15元以內(nèi)的空間運(yùn)行。2.廢鋼：目前影響廢鋼走勢的因素有：1、煤礦復(fù)產(chǎn)速度加快，拖累煤焦價格，鐵水性價比仍高：2、盤面窄幅震蕩，且下周會議預(yù)期仍在，市場觀望情緒濃厚；3、下游成品需求表現(xiàn)一般，鋼企銷售壓力大，利潤難修復(fù)。整體來看，期現(xiàn)貨震蕩運(yùn)行，兩會前夕市場心態(tài)多以觀望為主?？紤]到需求旺季即將啟動，下游需求或有所回暖，且鋼材自身基本面較為建康，下方價格空間有限，故預(yù)計短期內(nèi)市場仍維持按需調(diào)整?！句搹S方面】1.2月26日河南濟(jì)源鋼鐵（集團(tuán)）有限公司對建筑鋼材品種出廠價格進(jìn)行調(diào)整：1、棒材系列：螺紋鋼價格下調(diào)30元/噸，現(xiàn)HRB400EΦ20mm螺紋鋼掛牌價3440元/噸；2、高線價格下調(diào)30元/噸，現(xiàn)HPB300Φ6.5mm高線掛牌價3620元/噸；3、盤螺價格下調(diào)30元/噸，現(xiàn)HRB400Φ8mm盤螺掛牌價3640元/噸。以上價格均為含稅，執(zhí)行日期自2025年2月26日0時起。2. FH計劃3月1日復(fù)產(chǎn)；ZT現(xiàn)日產(chǎn)3千噸；MY現(xiàn)日產(chǎn)7千噸。 【市場價格變化】： 表1 河南地區(qū)市場螺紋的價格 單位（元/噸）本周河南市價震蕩下調(diào)10-30，閩源螺紋廠發(fā)報價3220元/噸，商家成交一般，本周市場成交高峰在周三，市場受粗鋼壓減傳聞，期螺快速拉漲，市場成交回暖，目前河南省內(nèi)鋼廠多檢修限產(chǎn)，本周產(chǎn)量有小幅回升。終端資金方面，據(jù)統(tǒng)計樣本建筑工地資金到位率周環(huán)比上升，需求逐步釋放，兩湖預(yù)期尚未證偽，市場心態(tài)維持謹(jǐn)慎樂觀，預(yù)期短期鋼價下跌空間有限。【市場庫存變化】：表2 河南地區(qū)建材市場庫存變化匯總（單位：萬噸）河南市場商家基本廠發(fā)為主，就鄭州為例，市場社會庫存常年難有4萬噸，商家?guī)齑鎵毫π?，降價意愿不強(qiáng)，市場需求釋放整體偏緩，成交整體平平，不少商家長期庫存保持在3千噸且多是低價資源，本周鄭州建材社會庫存2.73萬噸，其中螺紋鋼庫存2.24萬噸，盤線0.49萬噸；鋼廠方面，省內(nèi)建筑鋼廠產(chǎn)能利用率約25%，不少鋼廠仍是轉(zhuǎn)產(chǎn)以及停產(chǎn)中，基本面供需矛盾不突出，鋼價漲跌多受盤面以及需求影響?！竞幽系貐^(qū)后期預(yù)測】：市場需求有小幅釋放，整體釋放節(jié)奏偏緩，下游剛需為主，目前鋼廠產(chǎn)能利用率有小幅上升，社會庫存仍在低位，基本面供需矛盾偏小，商家心態(tài)謹(jǐn)慎樂觀，政策面尚存預(yù)期，盤面維持震蕩，原料端支撐有限，兩會臨近，廠商挺價意愿尚有，需求有季節(jié)性轉(zhuǎn)暖趨勢，綜合考慮預(yù)計下周市價震蕩偏強(qiáng)運(yùn)行，幅度20-40。 免責(zé)聲明：以上內(nèi)容及信息源于公開資料。上文所闡述的觀點(diǎn)結(jié)論和建議可供參考，不構(gòu)成所述或期貨品種的買賣出價或征價，在任何情況下，本公司不對客戶因使用報告中內(nèi)容所引致的一切損失負(fù)責(zé)任，客戶需自行承擔(dān)全部風(fēng)險。 1備注：數(shù)據(jù)僅供參考，不作為投資依據(jù)。
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