供應(yīng)端利潤尚存,關(guān)稅問題持續(xù)發(fā)酵,旺季鋼價仍會上漲？
發(fā)布時間：2025-03-28 22:22
編輯：達物
來源：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)
43
11v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);}table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband
11
v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}1v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}11創(chuàng)大鋼鐵資訊3月28日消息:【原料信息】1.鐵礦：上周全球鐵礦發(fā)運再次回升，主要是巴西發(fā)運增長，澳洲及非主流發(fā)運也有小幅回升。受前期發(fā)運回落影響，港口到港量有所減少，但同時因疏港出現(xiàn)下降，港口鐵礦庫存略有增加。本周調(diào)研的169家鋼廠577座高爐的開工率為83.36%，較上期增加0.34個百分點。本周關(guān)于粗鋼減產(chǎn)的消息增多，雖有部分鋼企發(fā)布粗鋼減產(chǎn)具體文件，但當(dāng)下長流程鋼廠利潤可觀，生產(chǎn)積極性較高，鐵水處于復(fù)產(chǎn)階段，鋼廠庫存依然偏低，仍維持按需采購節(jié)奏，剛需支撐較強，短期基本面矛盾不突出，礦石估值修復(fù)明顯。2.廢鋼：28日樣本鋼企上個工作日廢鋼到貨50.74萬噸,環(huán)比增加1.78萬噸。螺廢價差756(-9),鐵廢價差-96(-7)。華東長流程鋼廠即時利潤82元/噸(-2),短流程全廢鋼冶煉平電利潤-103元/噸(0)。整體來說，近期期螺盤面低位震蕩，廢鋼市場情緒難有提振，貿(mào)易商正常走貨為主，部分地區(qū)到貨偏高的小幅下壓價格，部分地區(qū)因市場貨源供應(yīng)偏緊，到貨不足的廠家按需小幅提漲。當(dāng)前正材需求偏弱，鋼企盈利空間不佳下多壓價收貨，但考慮市場資源緊張難改，到貨難有提升，廢鋼價格難大幅打壓，預(yù)計短期市場穩(wěn)中窄幅整理運行?！句搹S方面】1.3月28日寶武鄂城鋼鐵建筑鋼材出廠指導(dǎo)價:線材3490元/噸,螺紋3270元/噸,盤螺3490元/噸含稅。2.3月28日漣鋼建材出廠價格平穩(wěn)（噸價，下同）：現(xiàn)HRB400E材質(zhì)Φ18mm螺紋鋼指導(dǎo)價執(zhí)行3500元/噸；上述價格自2025年3月28日起執(zhí)行。3月28日湘鋼建材出廠價格平穩(wěn)（噸價，下同）：1、HRB400E材質(zhì)18mm螺紋鋼出廠指導(dǎo)價執(zhí)行3400元/噸；2、HRB400E材質(zhì)8-10mm盤螺出廠指導(dǎo)價執(zhí)行3500元/噸；3、HPB300材質(zhì)8-10mm高線出廠指導(dǎo)價執(zhí)行3600元/噸；上述價格自2025年3月28日起執(zhí)行?！?a target="_blank">市場價格變化】： 表1 兩湖地區(qū)市場螺紋的價格 單位（元/噸）本周湖南市價先強后強，長沙萍鋼螺紋基價3200元/噸較周一穩(wěn)，武漢武鋼螺紋廠發(fā)3080元/噸較周一穩(wěn)，市場商家多議價出貨，市場需求較為冷清，下游拿貨以剛需為主，投機需求也較弱。現(xiàn)處傳統(tǒng)旺季，市場心態(tài)持穩(wěn)，鋼廠方面，省內(nèi)不少主流鋼廠側(cè)重其他品種鋼，建材產(chǎn)量整體不高，然基本面現(xiàn)仍是供大于需，鋼廠庫存不高，湖南地區(qū)主流鋼廠基本沒有廠庫庫存，現(xiàn)鋼廠挺價意愿較強，市場主流代理低售意愿不強，原料端尚有支撐，預(yù)計短期鋼價下調(diào)空間有限?！臼袌鰩齑孀兓浚罕? 兩湖地區(qū)建材市場庫存變化匯總（單位：萬噸）目前長沙建材社會庫存25.26萬噸；衡陽3萬噸；婁底4.3萬噸；湘潭0.4萬噸；懷化1.85萬噸；武漢建材社會庫存31.16萬噸；現(xiàn)市場庫存未有明顯壘庫，武漢地區(qū)庫存還有小幅去化，商家情緒偏樂觀謹(jǐn)慎，兩湖地區(qū)鋼廠廠庫較上周微增，目前看旺季需求或不及預(yù)期，預(yù)計4月社會庫存會持續(xù)增加?！緝珊貐^(qū)后期預(yù)測】：海外風(fēng)險猶存，基本面供需矛盾未擴大，期螺窄幅震蕩，市場信心不足，投機需求減少，情緒以謹(jǐn)慎觀望為主，目前在利潤尚可情況下，鋼廠減產(chǎn)可能行不大，4月部分區(qū)域雨水增多，實際需求或不及預(yù)期，4月底市場庫存或會壘庫，考慮到政策或有發(fā)力，預(yù)計4月鋼價先強后弱。免責(zé)聲明：以上內(nèi)容及信息源于公開資料。上文所闡述的觀點結(jié)論和建議可供參考，不構(gòu)成所述或期貨品種的買賣出價或征價，在任何情況下，本公司不對客戶因使用報告中內(nèi)容所引致的一切損失負責(zé)任，客戶需自行承擔(dān)全部風(fēng)險。 1備注：數(shù)據(jù)僅供參考，不作為投資依據(jù)。
免責(zé)聲明：本站發(fā)布此文目的在于促進信息交流，不存在盈利性目的，此文觀點與本站立場無關(guān)，不承擔(dān)任何責(zé)任。本站歡迎各方(自)媒體、機構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)載引用我們文章（文章注明原創(chuàng)的內(nèi)容，未經(jīng)本站允許不得轉(zhuǎn)載），但要嚴(yán)格注明來源創(chuàng)大鋼鐵；部分內(nèi)容文章及圖片來自互聯(lián)網(wǎng)或自媒體，我們尊重作者版權(quán)，版權(quán)歸屬于原作者，不保證該信息（包括但不限于文字、圖片、視頻、圖表及數(shù)據(jù)）的準(zhǔn)確性、真實性、完整性、有效性、及時性、原創(chuàng)性等，如有涉及版權(quán)等問題，請來函來電刪除。未經(jīng)證實的信息僅供參考，不做任何投資和交易根據(jù)，據(jù)此操作風(fēng)險自擔(dān)。
