國內(nèi)會(huì)議預(yù)期以及海外大選擾動(dòng)市場情緒,基本面矛盾不大,后期鋼價(jià)還能漲一波？
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2024-10-30 18:01
編輯：達(dá)物
來源：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)
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table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}1創(chuàng)大鋼鐵資訊10月30日消息:【宏觀信息】1.【國家發(fā)改委、工信部等六部門發(fā)布關(guān)于大力實(shí)施可再生能源替代行動(dòng)的指導(dǎo)意見】意見提到，“十四五”重點(diǎn)領(lǐng)域可再生能源替代取得積極進(jìn)展，2025年全國可再生能源消費(fèi)量達(dá)到11億噸標(biāo)煤以上。“十五五”各領(lǐng)域優(yōu)先利用可再生能源的生產(chǎn)生活方式基本形成，2030年全國可再生能源消費(fèi)量達(dá)到15億噸標(biāo)煤以上，有力支撐實(shí)現(xiàn)2030年碳達(dá)峰目標(biāo)。【原料信息】1.焦炭：前期部分鋼廠積極補(bǔ)庫，廠內(nèi)焦炭庫存已提至合理水平，對(duì)焦炭采購略有放緩，但當(dāng)前焦企廠內(nèi)焦炭庫存整體仍偏低，暫無明顯庫存壓力。需求方面，宏觀發(fā)力帶動(dòng)鋼材價(jià)格走強(qiáng)，鋼廠利潤好轉(zhuǎn)，生產(chǎn)積極性不減，焦炭剛需仍存，然考慮到鋼材市場即將度過旺季，部分高庫存鋼廠對(duì)焦炭采購多偏謹(jǐn)。港口方面，港口焦炭現(xiàn)貨震蕩偏弱運(yùn)行，市場交投氛圍一般，貿(mào)易商集港仍偏謹(jǐn)慎。預(yù)計(jì)短期焦炭市場暫穩(wěn)觀望。2.鐵礦石：鐵礦石整個(gè)走勢維持寬幅波動(dòng)，伴隨國內(nèi)外重要會(huì)議的臨近，市場仍在焦急等待會(huì)議的內(nèi)容結(jié)果，在也正是在此階段側(cè)面小道消息容易影響市場的整體情緒，當(dāng)前階段基本面的影響作用已經(jīng)相對(duì)較弱，宏觀預(yù)期之間的博弈開始占據(jù)主導(dǎo)，影響價(jià)格的邏輯可能會(huì)從股票市場開始進(jìn)而傳導(dǎo)至大宗商品價(jià)格上。短期來看的話，市場震蕩期預(yù)計(jì)將會(huì)繼續(xù)維持，整體情緒還是處于觀望保守階段，此時(shí)的行情不容易顯漲也不容易深跌。3.廢鋼：昨日至今，本地鋼廠持穩(wěn)運(yùn)行。現(xiàn)湖南市場主流成交價(jià)：重廢6厚2250-2300，鋼筋頭2260-2310，機(jī)生鐵2180-2230。湖南省共4家樣本鋼廠廢鋼到貨量為1.49萬噸/天，較前一工作日增加0.22萬噸。期螺震蕩，市場恐跌，商戶送貨速度有所加快，省內(nèi)到貨量整體呈上升趨勢?？紤]到目前成品銷售一般，鋼企利潤縮窄，故調(diào)價(jià)較謹(jǐn)慎。若后期政策不及預(yù)期，不排除再次壓價(jià)的可能，因此，短期來看，預(yù)計(jì)本地廢鋼主穩(wěn)，個(gè)別按需調(diào)整?！句搹S調(diào)價(jià)】：1.10月30日漣鋼建材出廠價(jià)格平穩(wěn)（噸價(jià)，下同）,現(xiàn)HRB400E材質(zhì)Φ18mm螺紋鋼指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3610元/噸,上述價(jià)格自2024年10月30日起執(zhí)行。2.10月30日湘鋼建材出廠價(jià)格下調(diào)20元（噸價(jià)，下同）,1、HRB400E材質(zhì)18mm螺紋鋼出廠指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3560元/噸,2、HRB400E材質(zhì)8-10mm盤螺出廠指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3750元/噸,3、HPB300材質(zhì)8-10mm高線出廠指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3760元/噸,上述價(jià)格自2024年10月30日起執(zhí)行。【市場價(jià)格變化】：
表1 湖南市場建材的價(jià)格 單位（元/噸）本周湖南地區(qū)現(xiàn)貨市價(jià)偏弱運(yùn)行，跌幅30-40，今長沙萍鋼螺紋基價(jià)3540元/噸較周一跌40，本周盤面窄幅震蕩，市場成交平平，螺紋盤螺價(jià)差仍有縮小，商家月末存在出貨壓力，市場存在低價(jià)資源，據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)今長沙十家大戶出貨7910噸，多數(shù)商家成交300-500噸，也有商家挺價(jià)未有成交，宏觀面中央強(qiáng)調(diào)要落實(shí)存量增量政策，市場存在利好預(yù)期，淡季來臨，下游需求有限，預(yù)計(jì)短期湖南建材市價(jià)上漲空間有限?！臼袌鰩齑孀兓浚罕? 長沙建材市場庫存變化匯總（單位：萬噸）目前湖南市價(jià)偏弱運(yùn)行，現(xiàn)貨市場成交量稍顯一般，XG日產(chǎn)1000噸，LG日產(chǎn)3000噸，鋼廠產(chǎn)能利用率較上周持平，各城市社會(huì)庫存漲跌不一，長沙建材社會(huì)庫存16.58萬噸，較上周減少0.26萬噸，其中螺紋鋼庫存11.65萬噸，盤線4.93萬噸；衡陽1萬噸減0.2萬噸，婁底4.7萬噸增0.2萬噸，懷化2萬噸增0.2萬噸，湘潭0.46萬噸增0.01萬噸。目前來看，市場消化偏緩，資源抵運(yùn)不多，預(yù)計(jì)短期供需矛盾不會(huì)進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大?！竞系貐^(qū)后期預(yù)測】：目前現(xiàn)貨市場成交整體偏弱，商家出貨為主，淡季來臨下游剛需有限，社會(huì)庫存不高，成本支撐尚在，鋼廠產(chǎn)能利用率維持中位，供需矛盾不大，部分城市資源到貨少，規(guī)格缺少現(xiàn)象已現(xiàn)，現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格受盤面影響較大，近期國內(nèi)會(huì)議預(yù)期和海外大選或?qū)⒂绊懕P面波動(dòng)，綜合考慮，預(yù)計(jì)短期鋼價(jià)震蕩偏強(qiáng)，幅度40-60。 免責(zé)聲明：以上內(nèi)容及信息源于公開資料。上文所闡述的觀點(diǎn)結(jié)論和建議可供參考，不構(gòu)成所述或期貨品種的買賣出價(jià)或征價(jià)，在任何情況下，本公司不對(duì)客戶因使用報(bào)告中內(nèi)容所引致的一切損失負(fù)責(zé)任，客戶需自行承擔(dān)全部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 1備注：數(shù)據(jù)僅供參考，不作為投資依據(jù)。
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