冬儲(chǔ)尚未開啟,資源緊缺,節(jié)后鋼價(jià)再次下調(diào)？
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2024-12-31 17:38
編輯：達(dá)物
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table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;} 1創(chuàng)大鋼鐵資訊12月31日消息:【宏觀信息】1.【國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局：2023年全國(guó)數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)核心產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值占GDP比重為9.9%】 國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局根據(jù)《數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)及其核心產(chǎn)業(yè)統(tǒng)計(jì)分類（2021）》，利用第五次全國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)普查結(jié)果，核算了全國(guó)數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)核心產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值。經(jīng)核算，2023年我國(guó)數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)核心產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值為127555億元，占GDP的比重為9.9%?！驹闲畔ⅰ?.焦炭：焦炭第五輪提降雖已落地，但隨著焦煤價(jià)格持續(xù)下跌讓利，焦企利潤(rùn)未有明顯收縮，開工情況變化不大，焦炭供應(yīng)相對(duì)穩(wěn)定，但市場(chǎng)情緒一般，部分鋼廠對(duì)焦炭采購(gòu)積極性有所降溫，焦企多積極出貨。需求方面，市場(chǎng)需求較弱，鋼廠高爐減產(chǎn)檢修力度加大，焦炭剛需承壓回落，且部分鋼廠經(jīng)過(guò)前期補(bǔ)庫(kù)，廠內(nèi)焦炭庫(kù)存多處合理水平，對(duì)焦炭多按需采購(gòu)為主。港口方面，港口焦炭現(xiàn)貨暫穩(wěn)運(yùn)行，兩港庫(kù)存水平略有回升，港口交投氛圍一般。預(yù)計(jì)短期內(nèi)焦炭市場(chǎng)或弱穩(wěn)運(yùn)行。2.廢鋼：目前影響廢鋼走勢(shì)的因素有：1、反向開票執(zhí)行落地情況尚不明朗，市場(chǎng)心態(tài)謹(jǐn)慎；2、部分地區(qū)鋼企計(jì)劃停產(chǎn)、減產(chǎn)，廢鋼需求將轉(zhuǎn)弱；3、成材淡季效應(yīng)依舊存在，需求有限。綜合來(lái)看，反向開票政策影響不減，鋼企方面觀望心態(tài)居多，基地貨場(chǎng)出貨意愿開始下降，整體到貨出現(xiàn)下滑，但考慮部分鋼企仍有補(bǔ)庫(kù)需求，因此廢鋼價(jià)格支撐尚有，不過(guò)成材淡季期間銷售情況一般，使得廢鋼調(diào)整空間也較有限，預(yù)計(jì)短期廢鋼多主穩(wěn)個(gè)調(diào)運(yùn)行為主?！句搹S調(diào)價(jià)】：1.閩源鋼鐵于2024年11月21日-2024年12月10日對(duì)1080m³ 高爐進(jìn)行年修20天，預(yù)計(jì)影響日均鐵水產(chǎn)量約0.3萬(wàn)噸，期間對(duì)一條棒材軋機(jī)相應(yīng)停產(chǎn)，螺紋鋼品種產(chǎn)量有所影響；另計(jì)劃于2024年12月11日-12月30日對(duì)1580m³ 高爐進(jìn)行年修20天，預(yù)計(jì)影響日均鐵水產(chǎn)量約0.5萬(wàn)噸，成品材影響量待定，具體以鋼廠產(chǎn)量為準(zhǔn)。 2.濟(jì)源鋼鐵螺紋停產(chǎn)，暫未確定復(fù)產(chǎn)時(shí)間；信鋼停產(chǎn)至今，年前沒(méi)有復(fù)產(chǎn)計(jì)劃?！?a target="_blank">市場(chǎng)價(jià)格變化】： 表1 河南市場(chǎng)螺紋的價(jià)格 單位（元/噸）本月河南現(xiàn)貨市價(jià)震蕩偏強(qiáng)，今鄭州閩源螺紋基價(jià)3350元/噸較月初漲140，本月全國(guó)財(cái)政工作會(huì)議召開，市場(chǎng)有利好傳聞炒作，盤面出現(xiàn)提振，加之鋼廠基本都檢修減產(chǎn)，市場(chǎng)資源不多，鋼廠挺價(jià)，市價(jià)整體偏強(qiáng)，然淡季深入，市場(chǎng)規(guī)格緊缺，下游工地陸續(xù)停工，成交持續(xù)下滑，有商家表示貨少需求少會(huì)有全天沒(méi)有成交的情況，現(xiàn)市場(chǎng)暫未開啟冬儲(chǔ)，河南鋼廠也未有出冬儲(chǔ)政策，市場(chǎng)處于觀望階段，鋼廠廠家較高，商家拿貨意愿弱，隨著節(jié)日到來(lái)，需求弱勢(shì)愈加明顯，綜合考慮，短期鋼價(jià)易跌難漲。【市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存變化】：表2 鄭州建材市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存變化匯總（單位：萬(wàn)噸）目前河南建材庫(kù)存處年內(nèi)低位，市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存仍在去化，河南因鋼廠政策影響，代理商多以廠發(fā)為主，市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存一般是商家購(gòu)進(jìn)的低價(jià)資源，所以全年市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存皆不高，據(jù)了解鄭州建材社會(huì)總庫(kù)存不足3萬(wàn)，安陽(yáng)地區(qū)建材總庫(kù)存不到5千噸，目前來(lái)看商家冬儲(chǔ)意愿很低，現(xiàn)螺紋價(jià)格高位，商家多以回籠資金為主，預(yù)計(jì)短期市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存難有增量?！竞幽系貐^(qū)后期預(yù)測(cè)】：河南地區(qū)社會(huì)庫(kù)存常年處于低位，省內(nèi)鋼廠多轉(zhuǎn)產(chǎn)停產(chǎn)，建材整體市場(chǎng)越發(fā)冷清，臨近冬儲(chǔ)，有主動(dòng)冬儲(chǔ)意愿的商家在市場(chǎng)占比不到10%，目前焦炭第五輪提將落地，成本支撐有限，市場(chǎng)價(jià)格的上漲一般不取決于基本面，多是宏觀擾動(dòng)提振，春節(jié)前，部分鋼廠有復(fù)產(chǎn)計(jì)劃，規(guī)格緊缺現(xiàn)象或有好轉(zhuǎn)，后期鋼價(jià)仍有下行空間。免責(zé)聲明：以上內(nèi)容及信息源于公開資料。上文所闡述的觀點(diǎn)結(jié)論和建議可供參考，不構(gòu)成所述或期貨品種的買賣出價(jià)或征價(jià)，在任何情況下，本公司不對(duì)客戶因使用報(bào)告中內(nèi)容所引致的一切損失負(fù)責(zé)任，客戶需自行承擔(dān)全部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 1備注：數(shù)據(jù)僅供參考，不作為投資依據(jù)。
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