社會(huì)庫(kù)存增加,鋼廠產(chǎn)量少,宏觀擾動(dòng)下鋼價(jià)上漲空間不大？
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2025-02-21 17:24
編輯：達(dá)物
來(lái)源：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)
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創(chuàng)大鋼鐵資訊2月21日消息:【鋼廠調(diào)價(jià)】：1.2月21日漣鋼建材出廠價(jià)格上調(diào)30元（噸價(jià)，下同）:,現(xiàn)HRB400E材質(zhì)Φ18mm螺紋鋼指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3490元/噸,上述價(jià)格自2025年2月21日起執(zhí)行。2.2月21日湘鋼建材出廠價(jià)格平穩(wěn)（噸價(jià)，下同）：1、HRB400E材質(zhì)18mm螺紋鋼出廠指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3400元/噸；2、HRB400E材質(zhì)8-10mm盤(pán)螺出廠指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3500元/噸；3、HPB300材質(zhì)8-10mm高線出廠指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3600元/噸；上述價(jià)格自2025年2月21日起執(zhí)行。【宏觀信息】【特朗普稱(chēng)與中國(guó)達(dá)成貿(mào)易協(xié)議的可能性很大】2月20日，外交部發(fā)言人郭嘉昆主持例行記者會(huì)。法新社記者提問(wèn)，美國(guó)總統(tǒng)特朗普昨日表示，他認(rèn)為與中國(guó)達(dá)成貿(mào)易協(xié)議的可能性很大。中方有何回應(yīng)？是否在達(dá)成協(xié)議方面取得了任何進(jìn)展？郭嘉昆表示，中方已多次就中美經(jīng)貿(mào)問(wèn)題闡明立場(chǎng)，貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)、關(guān)稅戰(zhàn)沒(méi)有贏家，損害的是各國(guó)人民的利益。“我們堅(jiān)決反對(duì)美方單方面加征關(guān)稅的做法，雙方應(yīng)通過(guò)平等和相互尊重的對(duì)話與協(xié)商解決各自關(guān)切。中方將繼續(xù)采取必要措施，堅(jiān)定維護(hù)自身的正當(dāng)權(quán)益。”【原料信息】1.鐵礦：鐵礦全球發(fā)運(yùn)處于低位,澳洲發(fā)運(yùn)受到颶風(fēng)影響大幅下降，國(guó)內(nèi)到港量近期預(yù)計(jì)將有顯著回落。需求端，終端需求繼續(xù)回暖，鋼廠存有微利，鐵水復(fù)產(chǎn)趨勢(shì)沒(méi)有改變，鋼廠進(jìn)口礦庫(kù)存可用天數(shù)處于同期極低水平，鐵礦需求仍有邊際改善空間。國(guó)內(nèi)兩會(huì)前政策預(yù)期難以證偽，終端需求存在轉(zhuǎn)暖跡象，旺季需求復(fù)蘇的預(yù)期有所升溫。鐵礦石基本面邊際好轉(zhuǎn)，預(yù)計(jì)短期走勢(shì)以偏強(qiáng)震蕩為主。2.廢鋼：本周全國(guó)廢鋼價(jià)格偏強(qiáng)運(yùn)行，成品材期現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格走強(qiáng)，帶動(dòng)廢鋼價(jià)格上揚(yáng)。年后廢鋼供應(yīng)有所回升，但增速不及預(yù)期，偏緩慢，與當(dāng)前鋼廠廢鋼的消耗量存在缺口，供需偏緊支撐廢鋼價(jià)格。隨著成品材價(jià)格的提振，鋼廠利潤(rùn)水平有所好轉(zhuǎn)，在此背景下，鋼廠漲價(jià)吸貨動(dòng)力強(qiáng)，加之兩會(huì)在即，市場(chǎng)多有盼漲情緒，預(yù)計(jì)短期廢鋼多偏強(qiáng)運(yùn)行。【市場(chǎng)價(jià)格變化】： 表1 湖南地區(qū)市場(chǎng)螺紋的價(jià)格 單位（元/噸）本周湖南地區(qū)市價(jià)上漲50-80，今長(zhǎng)沙萍鋼基價(jià)3370元/噸，懷化萍鋼螺紋基價(jià)3300元/噸，受宏觀利好信息擾動(dòng)，市場(chǎng)對(duì)兩會(huì)政策預(yù)期偏強(qiáng)，期螺持續(xù)震蕩上行，現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格隨之上漲，市場(chǎng)成交較上周有明顯好轉(zhuǎn)，下游市場(chǎng)實(shí)際需求有所釋放，市場(chǎng)成交高峰在周初，據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)，今長(zhǎng)沙十家大戶成交量在4920噸較上一日明顯減少，市場(chǎng)對(duì)高價(jià)資源接受度有限，據(jù)下游商家反饋，市場(chǎng)實(shí)際需求集中在廠發(fā)和農(nóng)村住房，大型基建項(xiàng)目較少，市場(chǎng)成交較乏力，預(yù)計(jì)下周鋼價(jià)上漲空間有限【市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存變化】：表2 湖南地區(qū)建材市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存變化匯總（單位：萬(wàn)噸）目前市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存仍有小幅增加，下游需求雖有釋放然湖南近期多雨，實(shí)際需求整體不及預(yù)期，現(xiàn)建筑鋼廠多保持不飽和生產(chǎn)，XG以及LG日產(chǎn)在500噸，供應(yīng)端壓力不大，現(xiàn)社會(huì)庫(kù)存整體處于中位，供需矛盾暫未擴(kuò)大，本周五大成品材數(shù)據(jù)偏利好，期螺持續(xù)走強(qiáng)，部分商家存在低位補(bǔ)庫(kù)意愿，投機(jī)性需求略有增加。旺季來(lái)臨，停產(chǎn)減產(chǎn)鋼廠仍有復(fù)產(chǎn)計(jì)劃，綜合考慮，預(yù)計(jì)下周湖南市場(chǎng)社會(huì)庫(kù)存增加。【湖南地區(qū)后期預(yù)測(cè)】：積極的財(cái)政政策對(duì)基建形成支撐,地產(chǎn)投資依然疲弱，隨著需求旺季臨近，商家押漲情緒有所增強(qiáng)，市場(chǎng)成交略有回暖，然高價(jià)出貨依舊受阻，目前省內(nèi)鋼廠生產(chǎn)積極性不強(qiáng)，外來(lái)資源多是江西萍鋼以及新鋼居多，市場(chǎng)仍處于供大于需的狀態(tài)，商家拿貨意愿不強(qiáng)多是出貨為主，考慮到兩會(huì)預(yù)期以及旺季來(lái)臨，預(yù)計(jì)下周市價(jià)偏強(qiáng)運(yùn)行，幅度30-50。免責(zé)聲明：以上內(nèi)容及信息源于公開(kāi)資料。上文所闡述的觀點(diǎn)結(jié)論和建議可供參考，不構(gòu)成所述或期貨品種的買(mǎi)賣(mài)出價(jià)或征價(jià)，在任何情況下，本公司不對(duì)客戶因使用報(bào)告中內(nèi)容所引致的一切損失負(fù)責(zé)任，客戶需自行承擔(dān)全部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 1備注：數(shù)據(jù)僅供參考，不作為投資依據(jù)。
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