廠庫增社庫減,市場關(guān)注事件尚在發(fā)酵,短期鋼價上漲空間有限？
發(fā)布時間：2024-10-25 17:34
編輯：達(dá)物
來源：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)
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table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}1創(chuàng)大鋼鐵資訊10月25日消息:【宏觀信息】【中鋼協(xié)：前三季度重點統(tǒng)計鋼鐵企業(yè)利潤總額同比下降56.39%】中國鋼鐵工業(yè)協(xié)會25日舉辦三季度信息發(fā)布會。據(jù)介紹，前三季度，重點統(tǒng)計鋼鐵企業(yè)累計營業(yè)收入4.54萬億元，同比下降6.87%；營業(yè)成本為4.31萬億元，同比下降6.14%；利潤總額289.77億元，同比下降56.39%；平均利潤率為0.64%，同比下降0.72個百分點。截至9月末，重點統(tǒng)計鋼鐵企業(yè)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率62.91%，同比上升0.75個百分點?！驹闲畔ⅰ?.廢鋼：昨日至今，本地市場主穩(wěn)個調(diào)。今期現(xiàn)貨市場止跌反彈，廢鋼市場心態(tài)好轉(zhuǎn)，加之外圍省市逐漸拉漲，省內(nèi)看漲情緒漸起，出貨開始放緩。目前來看，省內(nèi)鋼企觀望情緒較濃，調(diào)價謹(jǐn)慎，預(yù)計短期本地價格難有太大變動，仍將維持主穩(wěn)個調(diào)走勢。今本地湖北省共16家樣本鋼廠廢鋼到貨量為2.85萬噸/天，環(huán)比前一工作日增加0.11萬噸。目前主流市場價鋼筋切粒2400-2450元/噸，6-10厚鋼板合格料清一色2250-2350元/噸個高，6-10厚重廢合格料2200-2300元/噸，10厚以上重廢合格料2300-2350，6-10厚重廢毛料2150-2250，清一色冷熱軋白鐵2250-2350元/噸，2-4厚剪切料2030-2080元/噸，鋼筋坨子2230-2280元/噸，僅供參考。2.鐵礦石：今日鐵礦石上漲主要是由于A股市場炒多熱度重新點燃，帶動了商品價格的回升。但是據(jù)了解這次的炒作也屬于正常的行情，前期個別板塊前期下跌后有補漲的需求，其持續(xù)性還是有待驗證。產(chǎn)業(yè)層面鐵礦石數(shù)據(jù)整體偏中性。鐵水產(chǎn)量上升幅度縮窄，港口庫存幅波動維持1.6億大關(guān)口。短期來看，市場關(guān)注的點仍舊偏重于宏觀事件所帶來的影響，產(chǎn)業(yè)層面鋼材基本面有走弱趨勢，鐵水產(chǎn)量上升空間也逐步收窄，鐵水恐不久將要見頂，整體產(chǎn)業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)面偏空些，鐵礦石價格短期預(yù)計將會繼續(xù)持續(xù)寬幅波動的行情，期貨主力價格或?qū)⒃?50-790波動，普氏指數(shù)參考98-101美元?！?a target="_blank">市場價格變化】：
表1 武漢市場建材的價格 單位（元/噸）本周武漢建筑鋼材價格震蕩偏弱運行，跌幅30-60，武漢鄂鋼庫發(fā)螺紋在3380-3420，本周初期螺未有起色，下游觀望居多，詢價寥寥，今期螺持紅震蕩，市場成交好轉(zhuǎn)，目前省內(nèi)建筑鋼材生產(chǎn)企業(yè)，螺紋鋼產(chǎn)能利用率50%，線盤產(chǎn)能利用率30%，整體產(chǎn)能利用利用率處于中低位，然下游實際需求有限，省內(nèi)鋼廠廠庫仍有小幅增加，據(jù)了解EG廠庫較上周增加2千噸，今市價小幅上調(diào)10-20，多受盤面影響，目前宏觀預(yù)期尚存，焦炭仍有下降預(yù)期。預(yù)計短期市場價格上漲空間有限?！臼袌鰩齑孀兓浚?br /> 表2 武漢建材市場庫存變化匯總（單位：萬噸）本周武漢建材庫存仍有小幅下降，據(jù)統(tǒng)計本周武漢建材社會庫存18.36萬噸，較上周減少2.28萬噸，其中螺紋鋼庫存14.72萬噸，盤線3.64萬噸；目前部分工地反饋第四季度趕工計劃推遲，需求量增長空間有限，消費恢復(fù)進(jìn)度緩慢，本周現(xiàn)貨市場日成交整體一般，預(yù)計短期庫存去化放緩。【湖北地區(qū)短期預(yù)測】：現(xiàn)焦炭首輪提降，仍有兩輪下降預(yù)期，原料端支撐有限，鋼廠受利潤影響，生產(chǎn)積極性尚可，然本周期螺低位震蕩，市場投機減少，商家出貨放緩。市場較為關(guān)注的美國大選、美聯(lián)儲降息以及國內(nèi)重要會議的召開尚有段時間。月末市場存在出貨壓力，綜合考慮現(xiàn)貨價格上漲空間有限，預(yù)計下周市價或震蕩偏強，幅度20-40。 免責(zé)聲明：以上內(nèi)容及信息源于公開資料。上文所闡述的觀點結(jié)論和建議可供參考，不構(gòu)成所述或期貨品種的買賣出價或征價，在任何情況下，本公司不對客戶因使用報告中內(nèi)容所引致的一切損失負(fù)責(zé)任，客戶需自行承擔(dān)全部風(fēng)險。 1備注：數(shù)據(jù)僅供參考，不作為投資依據(jù)。
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